A New Type of Crisis: War and Warming Collide in Afghanistan


But climate change is also a threat multiplier for the Taliban. Analysts say water management will be critical to its legitimacy among Afghan citizens, and it will be one of the most important issues in the Taliban’s relations with their neighbors.

Throughout history, water has been an important currency in the Afghan war zone, as it has been in many battlefields. In their bid for Herat, a strategic city in the west, the Taliban has repeatedly attacked a dam that is critical to drinking water, agriculture and electricity for the people of the region. Likewise, in southern Kandahar Province, one of the Taliban’s most critical victories was to take control of a dam with drinking and irrigation water.

Climate change is also complicating the Taliban’s ability to deliver on an important promise: eliminating poppy cultivation. Poppies require much less water than, for example, wheat or melons and are much more profitable. Poppy farming employs an estimated 120,000 Afghans and about 300-400 million dollars per yearAccording to the United Nations and in order enriched the Taliban.

Areas under poppy cultivation grew sharply in 2020.

Analysts said the Taliban will seek to use poppy bans to gain legitimacy from foreign powers such as Qatar and China. But as rains become less reliable, it is likely to face backlash from growers who have few alternatives.

“This is going to be a huge political flashpoint,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, who studies the area at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

The last drought in 2018 left four million Afghans in need of food aid and forced 371,000 people to flee their homes, most of whom did not return.

“The effects of severe drought are exacerbated by conflict and the Covid-19 pandemic in a context where half the population already needs assistance,” Ramiz Alakbarov, the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, said by email from Kabul on Thursday. “With small financial reserves, people are forced to resort to child labour, child marriage, risky irregular migration that exposes them to trafficking and other protection risks. Many are taking on catastrophic debt and selling their assets.”



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