Did warming play a role in the deadly floods in South Africa? Yes, a Study


This includes observational data and two sets of computer simulations that model the world as it is, about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than it was before the onset of widespread emissions in the late 19th century, and a hypothetical world. Global warming never happened.

The finding that the probability of such an extreme rain event increases with global warming is consistent with many other studies of individual events and broader trends. A major reason for the increase is that as the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture.

The study noted that from a meteorological perspective, a 1 in 20 chance of a storm in any given year, while not common, is not an uncommon event. Therefore, the researchers examined other factors that may have contributed to the disaster’s high death and damage rates.

Among them, they wrote, are legacies of the policies established during the apartheid era. In 1958, for example, the Durban City Council passed a measure that forced non-whites into less desirable and in many cases flood-prone areas.

The researchers also noted the rise of makeshift settlements as a result of rapid urban growth and a lack of affordable housing. About 22 percent of Durban’s population, or 800,000 people, live in such settlements, which often lack services and proper infrastructure. The study noted that about 4,000 of the 13,500 homes damaged or destroyed in the April flood were on the riverbanks in such settlements, with most of the deaths occurring in these areas.

“We’re seeing once again how climate change is disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable people,” said Friederike Otto, founder of World Weather Attribution and climate scientist at Imperial College London.



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