Josh Allen has joined the NFL’s Elite. Next? to stay there.


This great evolution of Allen’s major overturned a tenet of football doctrine: that quarterbacks cannot increase their accuracy. After casting Allen in 2018, Bills General Manager Brandon Beane was rumored to have a tight end. He knew otherwise.

In a job interview the previous year, after Buffalo’s 16th season in which they didn’t make it to the playoffs, Beane stated that the New England Patriots dynasty is in part sustained by three friendly AFC East teams who regularly change coaches and front desks.

He said dethroning the Patriots took time and patience, and while researching quarterback expectations prior to the draft he decided to invest both in Allen.

On the farm Allen grew up on in Firebaugh, California, a small community about 40 miles northwest of Fresno, his family has long grown melons, cotton and wheat, and more recently pistachios. Like Allen himself, his trees need years of cultivation before they yield. Allen’s progression from obscure college quarterback to NFL star was an honest assessment of the transformation he needed.

“When you lie to yourself, the only person you hurt is yourself,” Allen said. “I’m not afraid to reach out and ask for help, being completely honest and understanding that I have things to work on.”

A quarterback rarely develops by large margins, as Allen did in his third season.

The best predictor of the third-year boom, May 2020 research by Pro Football Focusis the tendency to complete transitions. In Wyoming, Allen poorly tied 56.2 percent of his shots and finished last in the league in his first two seasons at Buffalo.

To better evaluate Allen, Beane needed to protect him, so he signed attackers Mitch Morse and Jon Feliciano as free agents in 2019. He also bolstered the buyers’ associations, adding Cole Beasley in 2019 and Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL on the pitches and receptions, in his 2020 trade to Minnesota.



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