Rural America’s Roads Could Look Like Cuba in 20 Years

All these stories about Cubans keeping old American cars on the road are absolutely true. Not mandatory: Trade embargoes prevent both US cars and their parts from going to the island, and existing – both new and used – foreign cars are in good condition. financially inaccessible for everyone but the wealthiest Cubans. That’s why they ultimate vehicle scavengers, fabricators and mechanics.

On a trip to Havana in January 2018, our guide this week was a friendly woman driving a gorgeous 1950s Chevrolet. On our way to dinner one evening, we jumped into the big yellow Chevy and started roaring on the road. One block later, his transmission dropped.

The driver called a taxi and when our plates were cleared we went to our food not sure who would pick us up. About two hours later, we were surprised to find the yellow Chevy with its transmission fully operational, waiting in the parking lot.

In the United States, such a quick fix would only be possible if there was a fully compatible transmission around a certain garage, ready to be installed in the moment of a hat (or transmission). Here, such a scenario would be very rare – but in Cuba it’s a different story.

“I know people who have every single spare part in their garage if their car breaks down,” said Paolo Spadoni, an associate professor of Cuban affairs at Augusta University in Georgia.

As cars around the world become electrified, it might be reasonable to assume that the mechanical wizardry required to repair a classic internal combustion car in two hours will become a highly discounted skill. After all, President Biden announced It wants to see electric vehicles account for 50 percent of all new US car sales by 2030.. All-electric vehicles currently account for about 2 percent of new car sales in the United States.

While trade embargoes aren’t the reason, but this next-generation shift to electric cars, experts say American roads could look like Cuban for a spell, and it’s possible that older cars powered by gasoline engines will be in circulation much later than they normally should. Exchanged for another fuel-burning model.

“We think it will be Cuban, especially in rural areas of the US,” said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. Battery improvements will be crucial to advance the number of electric cars on the road, he added. “Distance really matters for people in remote places; you have to travel long distances just to go to the grocery store,” said Mrs. Krebs.

Simply put, a lot has to happen in the next nine years for Mr. Biden’s goal to be remotely reachable. Electric cars need to be more affordable. The battery range needs to increase sharply. Charging stations need to become as commonplace as gas stations. And the time it takes to charge an electric car should drop more in parallel with filling a tank with gas.

Meanwhile, Cubans are limited to renting Chinese-made Chery Arrizo 5e, according to Carla Bailo, head of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich.

And that’s not the only problem. “Electricity in Cuba is in a crisis, given that Venezuela has supplied Cuba with the lowest amount of oil ever,” said Cuban Jorge Salazar-Carrillo, director of Florida International University’s Center for Economic Research. “I don’t know of any electric chargers in Cuba.”

In America, Colorado is one of the most progressive states when it comes to laying charging stations in remote areas. Yet a new New York Times article It details a trip there in an electric car, a weekend spent constantly worrying about the next place to plug it in.

“Range anxiety – it’s a real thing to understand when people go on a road trip,” said Jason Courter, chief operating officer of Bellevue Honda in Washington and former president of the American International Association of Auto Dealers.

“When you’re driving an electric vehicle, you really have to chart your course,” Mr. Courter added. “We will need to have a larger charging infrastructure – turning rest stops into charging stations. The average gas station stop takes about 10 minutes. For just a small charge, you have 20 minutes to half an hour plus one less opportunity to get them. ”

During this electric transition, cars won’t be stocking-era classics, but they may soon be showing their age. “The average vehicle on American roads isn’t young, it’s getting old, so people hold on to vehicles much longer,” Ms. Krebs said. “Even if we reach 50 percent by 2030, gas-powered vehicles will be around for a long time.”

Mrs. Bailo has a 1956 Chevy Bel Air, similar to which you can find more easily on the Havana roads. “Right now the average American can only afford a 14-year-old car,” he said.

“Old cars are not complicated. Corpses last forever, so you’re just dealing with engine parts. Simple. There aren’t many pieces there. ”

Mr. Salazar-Carrillo recalled his own cumbersome EV journey with a professor at the University of Vermont.

“He had to calculate because there weren’t many power stations,” said Mr. Salazar-Carrillo, adding that it took close to an hour for the charging to stop. “I think internal combustion engine cars will disappear more slowly than people believe. There will still be some families and businesses that will return to gasoline-powered cars. Normal cars can go like you see them in Cuba.”

Both Mr Salazar-Carrillo and Mr Courter question how green electric vehicles really are and point to their potential to tax already stressed power grids, as well as the manufacturing process of batteries.

“Many people have concerns about how this will tax the grid, especially with the intermittent cuts in California,” Mr Courter said. “Some of the messages behind electricity are that it is clean. But what did it take to make that battery? It still took the factories and took the mining, which according to everything I’ve read isn’t the cleanest process.”

The power supply is a central element.

“If it’s a coal-fired plant down the road that fires this electric car, it’s a bit of a wash,” said Ty Monroe, director of Northern European Auto Recyclers in Seattle, where Teslas are proliferating like rabbits. “But here, in the Northwest, it’s a net gain, because we have hydropower.”

Mr. Monroe’s junkyard specializes in salvaging and repairing old Volvos – Volvo, promised to be all electric until 2030. So there is a huge interest in seeing older cars stay on the road for as long as possible. Still, he hopes electrification is inevitable.

“The days of the internal combustion engine are numbered,” he said. “It makes sense for Volvo to stick with its lineage and want to be environmentally friendly and pioneering. If those parts get more obscure, it increases the value of having a powerful 60s car and having parts that can get it off the road. As it gets more electrified, a short-term boom But in 100 years, good luck going to a junkyard and finding a part for a gasoline-powered car.”

A full century from now, it’s a safe bet that there will be highways in the sky and we’ll all be Jetsons – if the planet will still have us by then. However, in the near future, things may get a little awkward as well-preserved colonies of F-150s wander the rural roads in search of a real gas station, while their electric counterparts are rejuvenated with an abundance of urban extension cords.

And apart from a revolution, Cubans will continue to drive cars that remind us of good times, cars that remind us of better times.