Even as all countries deliver on their emissions promises to address climate change, the global average temperature is poised to rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, a level considered “catastrophic” in the United Nations climate report the agency released on Friday.
This level of warming is likely to exacerbate the extreme types of wildfires, droughts and floods witnessed in recent months and years, increasing the frequency of deadly heatwaves worldwide and threatening coastal cities with rising sea levels.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described it as “a disastrous road”. The results represent a country-by-country tally of climate commitments made so far under the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, designed to prevent the worst consequences of global warming.
The report was released ahead of the annual meeting of presidents and prime ministers for the United Nations General Assembly next week, when climate change will likely be one of the key global issues, and President Joseph R. Biden Jr. world leaders for a virtual meeting designed to encourage countries to make even more ambitious climate pledges.
Perhaps most strikingly, the report showed the huge gap between what the scientific consensus urged world leaders to do and what they were ever willing to do. Emissions of planet-warming gases are poised to grow by 16 percent this decade compared to 2010 levels, although the latest scientific research shows that they must decrease by at least a quarter by 2030 to avert the worst effects of global warming.
“Governments allow vested interests to be called climate shots, rather than serving the global community,” Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International, said in a statement.
In total, nearly 200 countries around the world have made voluntary commitments to reduce or slow their emissions of planet-warming gases in the years since the signing of the Paris agreement. Some countries, including some of the world’s largest emitters such as the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union, have increased their commitments as outlined in the terms of the agreement.
But new commitments are still missing from China, which currently produces the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as Saudi Arabia and India, both major economies with a significant climate footprint.
Taken together, the report confirms that all these commitments are far below what is needed to limit global temperature rise to levels that would prevent the worst effects of warming. When reached in 2015, the Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius. Since then, due to advances in research, the scientific consensus is that the increase should be limited to 1.5 degrees; Beyond this threshold, there is a much greater probability of catastrophic consequences such as widespread crop famine and the collapse of polar ice.
As it is said, the timing of the synthesis report is as important as its content. The next round of international climate talks, scheduled to take place in Glasgow, is only six weeks away, and there is still uncertainty over who can attend, given travel restrictions to limit the spread of the coronavirus. It is unclear whether some of the world’s largest economies, including China, Russia, India and Brazil, will announce new climate commitments.
On Monday, Mr. Guterres is scheduled to host another meeting, which also encourages all countries to step up their climate promises and encourage rich countries to keep their promise to help poorer countries deal with the effects of climate change.
A separate analysis published this week by the Washington-based World Resources Institute, The world’s 20 largest economies are key to slow global climate change. 20 economies contribute 75 percent of global emissions.